USD/CAD Ratio: 3.10
Signal: Bearish
| Currency | Last Week | Present* | % Long | % Change in Positions Outstanding | Signal |
| USDCAD | 2.12 | 3.10 | 76% | 10.64% | Bearish |
USDCAD – While the broader USDCAD range between 1.0350 and 0.9700 is in little danger of falling, the pair’s Speculative Sentiment reading may point to a looming breakout from a less significant period of congestion. The pair’s SSI reading jumped from 2.12 from last week to 3.10 on Thursday with nearly 76% of retail traders long. While a quick glance to SSI levels a year ago would suggest this week’s levels are modest, in comparison to the positioning skew over the past six months it could be considered an extreme. The breakdown reveals the complacency speculative traders are taking with playing the well-worn range between parity and 1.03. Long trades grew 3.9% since yesterday but jumped a sharp 27.5% from last week. At the same time, short positions edged 0.7% higher from Wednesday but slumped 21.4% over the week. And, to further suggest the range is mature, open interest has actually grown - 8.2% over the past week and 10.8% over the monthly average. As a contrarian indicator, the relative extreme of USDCAD SSI points to a break below parity.
