Latest CFTC Release Dated June 13th, 2006:
· Record Breaking Longs In Euro Positioning Ends
· JPY Flips To Short As Spot Meets Resistance
US Dollar Index: It is now the 7th straight week US Dollar specs have held a net negative position with implieds steadily rising from 177,585 to 116,764. Though the implieds continue to go the way of the dollar, positioning in the index is actually looking worse. Long positions in the Index fell from 10,586 through June 6th to 8,426 for the week in question. This is telling of spot action in the index that made an unsuccessful run higher amid the large implied interest against the dollar.
EUR: Euro specs have dumped a significant portion of their long interest, to finally bring the string of new records to an end. Following up on net long specs of 88,196, a 30,000 position drop in longs has been the main contributor to a net 61,846 longs. While the drop in longs is significant as a loss of optimism in the euro, open interest is still high at 202,394. If a markedly fall in open interest or a surge in short positions occurred, it would confirm any move in the EUR/USD below the 1.2525 support level.
GBP: Pound specs were little changed from the previous weeks net long spec position to 22,094, but a 20,729 rise in open interest could act as a confirmation for some range bound trading in spot. With both long and shorts having added under 1000 new positions each, traders seem comfortable in holding onto current positiosn with some long sterling bias.
CHF: Swiss franc positioning has flipped back to net shorts this week with contributions from both sides. The net spec position is now short 2,882. Longs lost 5,563 positions while shorts bolstered their ranks by 6,739 new positions. The dancing around even for net positioning in both commercial and speculative circles suggests there is no clear bias in the market for the CHF based pairs.
JPY: Yen spec positions have made another leap down to bring the net position to 9,597 short. Of particular interest was the 22,812 new shorts added in the week along with the 41,670 jump in open interest. Both come at an important time as USD/JPY spot has reached what many have termed the make-or-break 115.50 level.
CAD: Everything seems to be in the CADs favor with net specs up 10,489 in the longs favor to a 33,351 positive balance and open interest up another 10,909 contracts. However, any increased significance offered the currency is suspect as the rise in the net figure is much the work of a 8,353 contraction in overall shorts.
AUD: A combination of little change in net positioning and a boost to open interest suggests the AUD/USDs now five-week long decline is showing little sign of abating. Longs lost 804 contracts in their favor, while shorts added 1,162 to theirs leaving the balance at 11,952 long. Open interest on the other hand had a relevant 8,192 addition in positions. The current net long however is counter intuitive of the developments in spot, holding out the possibility that the drop in the AUD/USD could still just be a correction in a longer uptrend.
