Japanese Yen Reversal

Published September 5th, 2006 - 03:15 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

1. CADJPY
2. CHFJPY
3. NZDJPY


CADJPY
CADJPY has reversed lower rather violently and currently trades at the former resistance zone turned support between 103.73 and 104.43.  Daily oscillators are turning more and more bearish RSI is declining from above 70 and is at 50 (midpoint) and MACD slope is negative.  8 day momentum is negative for the first time since 8/4 (when the pair was at 101.40).  The next support level is the 8/18 low at 102.69.  Resistance begins at the 38.2% fibo of 106.36-103.91 at 104.84.




CHFJPY CHFJPY has also plummeted and the pair is testing a trendline from 87.63 today.  A daily close below would instill more confidence in the downside and price would probe the 7/31 low at 92.60.  As is the case with CADJPY, CHFJPY daily oscillators are turning bearish.  Bullish divergence at todays low (on the hourly with RSI) and hourly RSI rising above 30 point to a bounce in the near term.  Resistance begins at yesterdays low at 94.22.




NZDJPY NZDJPY is down over 200 pips since the start of the month.  The story is the same daily oscillators are now sloping down and declining from overbought levels.  Support is at the 77/18 high at 73.52.  The pair is currently right at the 200 day SMA and the 20 day SMA is roughly 50 pips below current price at 74.47.  The hourly shows that the decline from 77.08 is in 5 waves which is impulsive and favors a bearish bias going forward.  A corrective move higher is possible as hourly RSI is increasing from below 30.  Initial resistance is at yesterdays low at 75.36.