· Euro Holds 38.2% Fibo<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
· Japanese Yen Blasts Through 20 Day SMA
· British Pound Basing?
· Swiss Franc Cant Loses 1.2300
· Canadian Dollar Continues In Ascending Triangle
· Australian Dollar Protects .7400
· <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />New Zealand Weakness Returns
EUR/USD With the 38.2% fibo of the 1.2519-1.2837 bull wave at 1.2716, EUR/USD may have completed a correction of the rally to 1.2837 at 1.2706. If more weakness materializes, then support is at the 1.2706 low as well as the 50% and 61.8% fibos of the aforementioned bull wave at 1.2678 and 1.2641. The corrective move down favors a bullish bias with resistance at yesterdays high of 1.2837. A push above exposes the 78.6% fibo of 1.2976-1.2481 at 1.2870. However, yesterdays outside day at the upper Bollinger band is quite imposing. The 6/27 high at 1.2618 must hold in order for the short term bullish bias to hold.
USD/JPY Yesterdays rally blew by both the 20 day and 10 day SMAs which are now minor supports at 115.59 and 115.30. The pair topped out yesterday at 115.78 but the subsequent decline has been uninspiring. The rally from the 114.10 low is 3 waves and therefore is corrective in nature but 115.78 needs to hold in order to keep the bearish scenario in tact. A push above 115.78 could see the pair test the next resistance level at the 78.6% fibo of 116.60-114.10 at 116.07.
GBP/USD We mentioned yesterday that the correction from strength to 1.8486 could be in the 3rd wave of a 3 wave corrective pattern. If this is the case, then the 3rd wave started at todays 1.8486 high and may be headed towards the 38.2% fibo of 1.8090-1.8496 at 1.8340. This is what happened but Cable appears weaker than the other majors and may have more room yet to move lower. A break below yesterdays 1.8325 low could test the 50% fibo of 1.8090-1.8494 at 1.8292 or the 6/27 high at 1.8262. A day after crossing into positive territory, CCI has moved back below 0.
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USD/CHF Yesterdays rally was rejected at the confluence of the 20 day SMA / 50% of 1.2499-1.2201 at 1.2350. The pair has since declined to test the 1.2300 figure. Like EUR/USD (but the inverse), the rally of the 7/5 low at 1.2201 was a corrective 3 wave rally. This suggests that the path of least resistance is down (as long as yesterdays high at 1.2356 holds). In this instance, the decline from 1.2356 would be a 1st wave down in a sequence of 5 that should test the 1.2201 low.
USD/CAD Our remarks that bullish divergence with oscillators on the hourly suggests that there is not much room left to the downside were accurate yesterday and USD/CAD has rallied over 100 pips from yesterdays low. The pair continues to trade within an ascending triangle with resistance at the upper end of the triangle bound by daily highs from 1.1243 (6/8) to 1.1283 (6/23). More immediate resistance at the 7/3 high of 1.1186. Reinforcing the bullish bias is yesterdays bullish engulfing outside day at the supporting trendline (from the ascending triangle).
AUD/USD AUD/USD continues to trade near the 200 day SMA at .7433. Yesterdays low at .7400 possible marked the end of a correction of strength to .7470. With the .7400 figure close to current price, risk is limited to the downside. If the .7400 low was the end of a correction, then the pair should test the .7470 high. A break above there would expose the confluence of the 50% fibo of .7791-.7270 / 61.8% extension of .7270-.7470 (from .7400?see calculation in table below) at .7423/30. However, if the .7400 low is breached, then support is at the 50% fibo of .7270-.7470 at .7370 and the 61.8% fibo at .7347.
NZD/USD The triple top at .6112/20 has held as support and the Kiwi looks offered again. Currently, the pair is testing the 50% fibo of .5927-.6120 at .6024. A break lower exposes the 61.8% fibo at the psychological .6000 figure. Hourly RSI is nearing oversold territory but that simply reinforces that momentum is down. The pair also broke back below the 10 day SMA yesterday which is initial support at .6149.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />AverageTrueRange (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
