- EUR/USD Sentiment Index Grows Less Net Long
- GBP/USD Ratio Favors Sterling Strength
- USD/CHF Bullish Positioning Increases
- USD/JPY Carry Trade Unwinds
- USD/CAD Long Positioning at 79%
**Twice a day SSI can be found on FXCMTR under Intraday Analytics
Historical Charts of Speculative Positioning
EURUSD - The ratio of longs to shorts is 1.16 as 54% of the currently open orders are long. The ratio has remained mostly net long for the past two months but has grown less extreme in the last three weeks. Today, long orders are 7.5% lower than yesterday and 1.8% weaker since last week. Short orders are 22.1% higher than yesterday and 1.3% stronger since last week. Open interest is 4.1% stronger than yesterday and 0.6% below its monthly average. Looking ahead, the SSI continues to signal EURUSD weakness but with the ratio growing less extreme those losses could be limited.
GBPUSD - The ratio of longs to shorts is -1.73 as 63.3% of the currently open orders are short. The ratio flipped to net short last week and has remained mostly net short since then, coinciding with a 300 pips gain in the currency pair. Long orders are 4.6% higher than yesterday and 5.5% stronger since last week. Short orders are 16.5% higher than yesterday and 4.2% stronger since last week. Open interest is 11.8% stronger than yesterday and 13.1% above its monthly average. Looking ahead, the SSI signals GBPUSD strength and existing up trend is expected to continue rather than reverse.
USDCHF - The ratio of longs to shorts is 1.62 as 61.8% of the currently open orders are long. The ratio continues to flip back and forth as the currency pair fluctuates within a relatively narrow range. Long orders are 17.5% higher than yesterday and 3.2% stronger since last week. Short orders are 10.9% lower than yesterday and 4.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 4.7% stronger than yesterday and 4.2% above its monthly average. Looking ahead, the SSI signals USDCHF weakness.
USDJPY - The ratio of longs to shorts is -2.30 as 69.7% of the currently open orders are short. The ratio flipped to net short in the beginning of the summer and has remained mostly net short since then. Long orders are 8.3% higher than yesterday and 23.2% weaker since last week. Short orders are 4.3% lower than yesterday and 9.5% stronger since last week. Open interest is 0.8% weaker than yesterday and 11.5% below its monthly average. Looking ahead, the SSI signals USDJPY strength.
USDCAD - The ratio of longs to shorts is 3.77 as 79.0% of the currently open orders are long. The USD/CAD ratio has remained mostly net long since May 2005, when the pair was trading at 1.26, coinciding with a 2400 pips loss in the currency pair. Today, long orders are 3.4% lower than yesterday and 14.3% stronger since last week. Short orders are 4.6% higher than yesterday and 28.2% weaker since last week. Open interest is 1.9% weaker than yesterday and 1.9% below its monthly average. Looking ahead, the SSI signals USDCAD weakness.<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
How To Interpret The SSI
The FXCM SSI is based on proprietary customer flow information and is designed to recognize price trend breaks and reversals in the four most popularly traded currency pairs. The absolute number of the ratio itself represents the amount by which longs exceed shorts or vice versa. For example if the EURUSD ratio is 2.55, long customer orders exceed short orders by a ratio of 2.55 to 1. If the EURUSD ratio is -3.00 short customer orders in the EURUSD exceed long orders by a ratio of 3 to 1. A negative number indicates that traders are net short while a positive number indicates that traders are net long. Conceptually similar to contrarian analyses using the CFTC IMM open position data or COT Report, the SSI provides an alternative approach that is both more timely and accurate in forecasting currency price movement. The SSI is a contrarian indicator that tells you how the market is weighted and where the trend may head. More long positions don't necessary suggest more confidence in the direction of the current
