Fibo Resistance Threatens Dow's Bullish Momentum

Published May 19th, 2009 - 04:58 GMT
Al Bawaba
Al Bawaba

Index Strat Risk Target
DJIA Long  7791  9860
NASDAQ    Flat    
S&P500 Long 826  1080







To review: “The decline from the October 2007 high is in 5 waves, therefore a multi-month countertrend 3 wave advance is underway. Fibonacci resistance does not begin until 8736.” Wave B within an A-B-C corrective advance from 6470 is complete at 7792. The Dow should rocket higher in wave C in the next few weeks. One possible target is 9864 (100% extension).



The Dow rallied and is in the verge of re-testing resistance at 8522 the 61.8% Fibo extension of the 9,795-6,470 decline. A break above there would leave 9,000 as the next barrier. However, if resistance holds we could see a retrace back to 8,120/30 which served as support in October and December of 2008.



The S&P count is the same as the Dow count. A B wave is complete at 827. A target is 1086 (100% extension) and the index should remain above 827.


The S&P 500 soared back above 900 as it found support at 880 which keeps the current upward trend intact. A test of the January 6th high of 943 is likely as the expected longer –term bullish trend continues to be fulfilled. 



The Nasdaq is in the same position as the other US indexes although the short term pattern is not clear. A deeper corrective rally is likely; perhaps to the 50% at 1902 or the 61.8% at 2094.


The Nasdaq rose back above 1,700 and is threatening to clear the 38.2% Fibo level of 2,474-1,262.  A break above there could lead to re-test of 1,785.