We must respect the possibility that a top is in place for the EURUSD since there is a mound of evidence that suggests as much. Last week’s key reversal is bearish as is the fact that the EURUSD failed to break above its December high but the USD index did break below its December low before reversing. This sets up a nonconfirmation / divergence that was last seen at the July 2008 EURUSD top (the opposite occurred then…USD index failed to make a new low but the EURUSD did make a new high). Structurally, wave C would be treated as a truncation. Coming under 1.4000 would confirm a top but we may be able to confirm a top before then if the EURUSD decline from 1.4450 turns into an impulse.
