Euro Starts to Ease On Commodity Crosses
1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD
EURAUD We have been focusing on the downward sloping channel from the 6/6 high at 1.7360. The bounce from the lower end of the channel at 1.6435 at 11/1 stalled just above the 61.8% fibo of 1.7146-1.6432 at 1.6873. A short term trendline drawn off of the 11/1 and 11/24 lows keeps the possibility of an advance to the upper end of the larger aforementioned channel intact. Initial resistance is at the 11/27 high at 1.6908. Another important technical consideration is the fact that price is again above the 200 day SMA which is now support at 1.6770.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
EURCAD 21 of the last 25 days have seen gains in the EURCAD that is not a typo. The pair has vaulted to above the 1.5300 figure just above the 50% Fibonacci of 1.6974-1.3497 at 1.5233. The question is?how much more upside potential is left at least in the near term? A 261.8% extension of 1.4125 to 1.4529 is at 1.5395 along with former congestion at the 6/10/2005 high at 1.5400. Due to the vertical uninterrupted nature of this rise, it is difficult to pinpoint support points to trade against. In this environment, moving averages work well. As such, a bullish bias is warranted against the 10 day SMA which is at 1.5143 today.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
EURNZD The EURNZD is trading within a well defined upward sloping channel. The break above the resisting trendline from July inspires confidence in the bullish side and a break above the 200 day SMA - which is above current price at 1.9773 - would bolster the longer term bullish case. The swing low at 1.9219 yesterday is initial risk for bulls. Price needs to maintain the bullish trendline drawn off of the 10/23, 11/3, and 11/21 lows in order to maintain confidence in the upside.
Key Levels & Technical Indicators
Table
CCI(21) 21 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(21) 21 day Momentum
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
*measured against past 3 months
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