1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD
EURAUD EURAUD reversed at the 5/9 high at 1.6614 and formed a long hammer on the daily chart on Tuesday. The pair has since rallied to test the 38.2% fibo of 1.7253-1.6622 at 1.6863. An 8 year resisting trendline (from the October 1998 high at 2.0451 using synthetic prices) does suggest that the longer term trend is down but that trendline is not until 1.7260. Price has come off of todays high and RSI has come off of overbought levels but a break above the 1.6879 high (today) exposes the 50% fibo of 1.7253-1.6624 at 1.6939. Daily oscillators are just now turning up, suggesting that this rally could continue. A supporting trendline from the 1.5609 low on 12/06/05 is at around 1.6640.
EURCAD EURCAD continues in a large corrective pattern that began on 2/28 at the 1.3495 low. The consolidation could be in the form of a slight upward sloping channel but has been a steeper upward sloping triangle of late. Even so, a supporting trendline from the 6/13 low at 1.3795 sits near 1.4180 but a break lower would then target the 7/18 low at 1.4138. The hourly chart shows a potential head and shoulders reversal pattern (the right shoulder is forming right now) but the short term trend remains bullish above the mentioned trendline. Potentially strong resistance is at the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.6284-1.3489 / series of daily lows (circled) at 1.4510/56.
EURNZD EUR/NZD held at support from the 5/25, 6/9 and 6/12 lows in effect making a triple bottom at 1.9919 (7/18 low). As such, the path seems up to the confluence of the 50% fibo of 2.1185-1.9914 / 6/2 high at 2.0549/73. A break above there would probe the 61.8% fibo at 2.0696 which is also joined by a series of daily highs in May. A dip in the short term is probable given the bearish divergence with RSI on the hourly and short term double top at 2.0370/80. Support is at todays 2.0270 low.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; bearish
andgt; 100 extremely bullish
-100 andgt; - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
andgt; 50 bullish
50 andgt; bearish
andgt; 70 overbought
30 andgt; - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* andgt; ATR(14) andgt; 25th percentile*
High - andgt; 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* andgt;
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
andgt; 30 strong
30 andgt; - weak
*measured against past 3 months
