1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD
EURAUD EURAUD continued its decline, finding support at the 78.6% fibo of 1.6364-1.7351 at 1.6576 on 7/26. That fibo support combined with a trendline on the daily from the 1.5609 low on 12/6 favors a rally attempt. Bullish divergence with CCI on the daily and CCI rising from above -100 reinforce a bullish stance. Support is at the 7/26 low at 1.6574. A break below there would negate the bullish bias and expose the 5/4 low at 1.6364. First resistance in the event of a rally is not until the 7/24 high / 38.2% fibo of 1.7351-1.6574 at 1.6889.
EURCAD The EURCAD rise has been stymied time and time again at the 1.4455/70 level. The 5/24, 7/11, 7/12, 7/24, and 7/27 highs all fall within 1.4455/72. The ceiling of resistance is similar to the USD/CAD formation a few weeks ago when the pair was rejected time and time again at the 1.1260/80 level. In fact, EURCAD has formed an ascending triangle of its own from the 6/13 low at 1.3795. As such, a break above the 1.4470 level could propel price to the 38.2% fibo of 1.6701-1.3493 at 1.4717. The supporting trendline from the ascending triangle is at 1.4245 and increases about 10 pips per day. If the pair fails to hold the ascending triangle, then the 7/18 low at 1.4138 comes into play.
EURNZD EUR/NZD has rallied off of support just above the 1.9900 figure and formed a triple bottom with the 5/25, 6/12, and 7/18 lows at 1.9896/1.9919. In the near term, a correction is due (a decline) as suggested by bearish divergence with oscillators on the hourly. Initial support is at the confluence of the 38.2% of 2.0093-2.0633 /todays low at 2.0428/44. A continuation of strength targets the 5/15 high at 2.0834.
Glossary of Terms
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CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; bearish
andgt; 100 extremely bullish
-100 andgt; - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
andgt; 50 bullish
50 andgt; bearish
andgt; 70 overbought
30 andgt; - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />AverageTrueRange (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* andgt; ATR(14) andgt; 25th percentile*
High - andgt; 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* andgt;
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
andgt; 30 strong
30 andgt; - weak
*measured against past 3 months
