1. EURJPY
2. EURCHF
3. EURGBP
EURJPY EUR/JPY has fallen the past three days after making a double top with the 4/20 high at 145.50. After falling to 143.70, the pair has bounced, creating a head and shoulders reversal on the hourly. Prospects are thus bearish and support comes in at the 38.2% fibo of the 140.18-145.68 bull wave at 143.60. Daily oscillators are mostly bearish as MACD slope and momentum are both negative. RSI and CCI are sloping down but not yet below their midpoints of 0 and 50. Hourly RSI is neutral as the pair has consolidated recent losses (see chart below).
EURCHF EUR/CHF resistance at the 4/18 low of 1.5632 held and the pair has since fallen to below 1.5550. With the low of wave 1 (1.5632) holding as resistance, the recent decline is likely a wave 5 that should eventually challenge the 5/18 low at 1.5448. Todays decline has also taken the pair below the 20 and 200 day SMAs. Slight positive divergence on the hourly near oversold levels gives scope to a short term rise in price resistance is at the 6/6 low of 1.5562 as well as the 6/9 high at 1.5599. Supporting a bearish bias is the recent break of a short term downward sloping channel.
EURGBP The recent decline in EUR/GBP is either a correction of the bull move from .6751 to .6909 or the beginning of a new downtrend. With the short term picture a bit fuzzy, a look at the weekly offers clarity. What we do see on the weekly is a well-defined symmetrical triangle (since May 2003) that is a consolidation of the .5712-.7253 May 2000-May 2003 bull wave. The structure of the triangle is nearing the end of its 5th wave as well as the apex, giving scope to a break in the near future. Moreover, the uptrend that began in May 2000 and topped out in May 2003 lasted for 163 weeks the consolidation that has followed is in its 162nd week of trading. Time series analysis often shows that periods of trend and consolidation are related to each other by either a Fibonacci multiple or multiple of 1 (equal).
