Euro Crosses Head In Different Directions
1. EURJPY
2. EURCHF
3. EURGBP
EURJPY The EURJPY may be tracing out an ending diagonal in the 5th wave position of a 5 wave bullish sequence that began at 148.85. If an ending diagonal is unfolding, then we should expect one more high above 159.03, and then a downtrend that will take the pair below 153.66. A decline below 155.25 negates the short term bullish bias. Ideally, 156.20 holds as support.
EURCHF We wrote last week that the push through 1.6171 indicates that wave 5 has been in progress since 1.6058. Focus has shifted to the 161.8% fibo of 1.5847-1.5032 at 1.6348. This rally will complete a larger 3 wave advance from 1.4395. The A and C legs of the advance from 1.4395 would be equal at 1.6484, at which point a risk of reversal is high. The rally extended to 1.6289 last week and reversed in what may be the beginning of the larger reversal. However, only a decline below 1.6082 warrants a confident bearish bias. A rally through 1.6289 shifts focus to 1.6348.
EURGBP We have focused on the fact that the EURGBP is turning higher from a major low and the extended third wave from .6574 confirms our bullish bias. A 4th wave correction should unfold soon and give way to another thrust higher. The next resistance level is the 11/16/2006 high at .6798. A 4th wave down would likely start from near current price (200 SMA as well) and test .6714 the 23.6% of .6574-.6757. Of course, if .6757 is exceeded, then Fibonacci levels would need to be re-calculated.
Table
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(21) 21 day Momentum
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
*measured against past 3 months
