1. EURJPY
2. EURCHF
3. EURGBP
EURJPY After coming off of the 147.39 high on 7/6, EUR/JPY has rallied back to challenge the 147.00 figure. Price has come off of highs from Friday and today at 147.13/18 and hourly RSI continues to weaken. Scope remains for a test of the 38.2% fibo of 145.01-147.18 at 146.35 as well as the 7/13 low at 146.13. Still, it appears that the decline from 147.39 to 145.01 is a 4th wave correction. Thus, we need one more rally to form a 5th wave rally before we can favor the downside. This most recent rally from 140.19 is subdivided as follows 140.19-145.69 (wave 1), 145.69-143.64 (wave 2), 143.64-147.39 (wave 3), 147.39-145.01 (wave 4), and 145.01-present is wave 5. Since wave 3 can not be the shortest wave of the sequence, wave 5 must end before 148.76 (which is where the advance from 145.01 would equal the price distance of wave 3). For more on EUR/JPY, see the DailyFX special report at http://www.dailyfx.com/story/special_report/special_reports/Euro_Bears___It_May_be_Time_1152747631957.html
EURCHF After breaking below Fridays low at 1.5594, EUR/CHF has rallied to the 38.2% fibo of 1.5709-1.5587 at 1.5634. After 5 waves down from 1.5709, we are looking for a bit more strength to challenge either the 50% or 61.8% fibos at 1.5648 or 1.5662. A downward sloping trendline sits at around 1.5695 and needs to hold as resistance in order to keep a bearish bias (the trendline decreases a little more than 2 pips per day). Daily oscillators continue to decrease and thus favor shorts.
EURGBP EUR/GBP looks similar to EUR/CHF, especially on the hourly. Both pairs have made bullish divergence with hourly oscillators at their recent lows. A continued bounce may see resistance at the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of .6958-.6870 / short term trendline from .6958 high at .6903. Immediate support is just below at the .6870 low (also a potential trendline on the daily from the .6753 low on 5/7). Of note also is the drop below the 20 day SMA on Thursday. Price had remained above the 20 day SMA since 6/21 when price closed at .6862.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
