Euro Commodity Crosses Take a Beating

1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD

EURAUD EURAUD has declined 7 of the last 8 days but the pair does seem to have found support yesterday at the confluence of the 5/26, 5/29, and 5/30 lows at .6781.  The pair has bounced from yesterdays 1.6793 low at the lower Bollinger band on the daily.  There is also a supporting trendline protecting bulls at the current price but a break lower could signal a breakout to the 50% fibo of 1.5960-1.7353 at 1.6658.  More support is from the 20 week SMA at 1.6884.  As we see, there is a lot of support at current levels.  So while the move down is rather convincing, wait for a bounce higher if you are to get bearish on EUR/AUD.  The 7/12 high at 1.6981 is resistance.  
 
   

EURCAD EUR/CAD has also moved south after piercing the previous high from 5/24 at 1.4455.  The pair thus continues in its upward sloping channel that began back in January.  Oscillators on the daily have turned over from overbought territory and are now bearish but with 5 waves up from 1.3795 (6/13 low), this move down is considered a correction.  Support is just below at the 7/3 high at 1.4303.   Fibo support from the 1.3795-1.4472 bull wave comes in at 1.4214 (38.2%).  Hourly oscillators are just above oversold territory and show slight bullish divergence.

EURNZD The euro is down for the 6th straight day against the Kiwi.  The decline from the 2.1187 high on 7/7 is likely the beginning of a corrective pattern of the 5 wave uptrend from 1.6326 to 2.1187.  We will know much more regarding future implications once we get a turn higher and begin the second wave of the correction.  That turn could come soon as price is very close to the 61.8% fibo of 1.9897-2.1187 at 2.0392 (todays low is at 2.0402).  This combined with bullish RSI divergence on the hourly favors a turn higher in the near term.  Resistance is connoted by the spike low on 6/30 at 2.0723.     

Glossary of Terms

CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish 
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak

*measured against past 3 months