1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD
EURAUD The long term trend, as indicated by the nearly 9 year trendline, is down (see last weeks chart). The long term triangle offers the best perspective. Price should come down to test 1.6304 in the E wave of the triangle (triangles have 5 waves A thru E). The pair is about to make a weekly close below the January low of 1.6304, which increases confidence in our longer term bearish outlook. Near term, a rally attempt is due with a possible 5 waves down from the 3/6 high at 1.7041. There is also support from the confluence of the 61.8% of 1.5530-1.7358 and a downward sloping support line on the daily (see below).
EURCAD We have been bearish EURCAD due to the 9 year trendline, bearish divergence with weekly oscillators, and the shooting start monthly candle (March candle). The next major support level is the January low at 1.5082 with a break lower targeting the August 2006 high at 1.4592. Near term, price has held up at the short term trendline drawn off of the 1/15, 2/23, and (now) 4/12 lows. A daily close below this line opens up the door for an attack on 1.5082. 1.5516 should be strong resistance.
EURNZD EURNZD has broken to 13 months lows and appears to have eyes for the 61.8% of 1.6326-2.1191 at 1.8185. We are looking for a corrective rebound in EURAUD, but the EURNZD may chop lower to test this fibo level. A break lower in AUDNZD, which is currently testing a short term support line, would fit with our view. Still, with an apparent 5 waves down from 1.9497, the risk of a corrective rally towards the former 4th wave at 1.8853 is high.
Table
CCI(20) 21 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
*measured against past 3 months
