ALBAWABA – Brent crude oil prices will likely average around $78 per barrel in July, according to the United States (US) Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) Short-Term Energy Report, released July 11.
Brent crude oil prices will continue to rise towards the end of 20236, breaching the $80 per barrel barrier in the fourth quarter of the year, the EIA reported.
Another report is due to come out later Wednesday. It is expected to find that demand will likely outgrow supply by nearly 100,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2023 and 200,000 in 2024, according to Reuters.
In 2024, Brent will likely average about $84 as global oil inventories decline over the next 15 months, the administration’s report said.
The EIA’s forecasts predict an increase in liquid fuels production in 2023 from non-members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), by 1.2 million barrels per day.
This growth is expected to offset supply cuts by OPEC and their allies (OPEC+), namely Russia.
OPEC+ production is forecast to decline by 0.8-0.9 million barrels per day in 2023, because of the production cuts, according to the report.
However, in 2024, liquid fuels production will likely increase by 1.5 million barrels per day, led by growth in OPEC+ countries, at a net growth of 0.5 million barrels per day.
The report highlights that global inventories will not be able to keep up with consumption.
Inventory builds averaged around 0.6 million barrels per day in the first half of 2023, but consumption will hit 0.7 million barrels per day in the second half of 2023.
Inventories will continue to fall by an average of 0.4 million bpd in the first three quarters of 2024 before increasing by 0.1 million bpd in the fourth quarter of 2024, the report said.
