In spite of the worldwide setback in international trade and tough competition in international markets during the last decade of the past millennium, Dubai’s international non-oil trade is expected to continue growing with unprecedented momentum. Statistical analysis carried out by the Statistics Department in the Ports, Customs and Free Zones Corporation shows that the growth is expected to rise by 64 per cent due to a number of factors that are leading the process in that direction.
The most important indication of growth is the initial result of Dubai’s international non-oil trade during the first six months of this year, which could even exceed this percentage should the buoyancy in trade continue at the same level for the rest of the year. In addition, there has been overall continuous increase at an annual average of 25 per cent through the past four years.
There are no doubts that there are several factors contributing to this expected growth rush, most significant being the booming real estate market across the GCC region in general and the UAE in particular. The exhilaration in the stock markets and the increase in the number of international companies that are making Dubai their regional headquarters also have a strong role to play. In this regard, the number of registered companies in Jafza (Jebel Ali Free Zone Authority) has jumped to 5,000 companies in the first half of this year. It is imperative here to mention that the government has taken the initiative to improve and develop infrastructure in the light of the dramatic increase in oil prices since the beginning of this year, crossing the threshold of US$ 60 a barrel for the first time in many years. Ports, Customs and Free Zones Corporation itself is expecting remarkable growth exceeding that of 2004, due to its consistency in responding to changes in the economy, and the fact that it has developed the ports to comply with the requirement of the period.
The final statistics, taken by Dubai Customs recently, show that Dubai’s international non-oil trade jumped in 2004 by 41 per cent when compared to 2003 that is 153.064 billion in 2003 compared to 215.727 billion in 2004 with a growth of 62.6 million, with Dubai handling 80 per cent share of the total international non-oil trade of the UAE. These results shed light on the rapid growth achieved in Dubai in a relatively short period of time, and the future targets the emirate can achieve in the international trade field. Besides, we find out, that after adding the turnovers of the free zones to Dubai’s international non-oil trade turnover, the all-in-all total of the emirate’s trade reached 351.404 billion in 2004, compared to 252.072 billion in 2003 with an increase of 39.4 per cent.
The year 2004 was marked by a noticeable activity in the re-exports field, which contributed to 26.4 per cent to the emirate’s total (excepting free zones), a fact that strengthened Dubai’s position as a trade hub in the region. These numbers have risen 51.1per cent compared to 2003 to reach 57.037 billion during the last year compared to 37.748 billion the year before, while exports, which were 4.5 per cent, saw a remarkable growth of 45.5 per cent to reach 9.643 billion in 2004 compared to 6.5 billion in 2003. On the other hand, imports which consisted 69.1 per cent, increased by 37.1 per cent to reach 179.046 billion during the last year compared to 108.723 billion the year before that. This is due, mainly, to the leap within the construction sector and the increased needs for building materials in order to comply with the requirements of the gigantic projects and developments in Dubai, combined with the increased budget the government designated to the infrastructure development in accordance with the dramatic increase in oil prices that exceeded the expected limits for 2004. Other factors included the population growth, steady increase in the number of the companies setting up in the emirate and growth within other sectors including tourism, fairs, exhibitions, festivals, etc.
In the same way, the area of Dubai’s commercial cooperation has spread in 2004 to include new regions and countries in the five continents. The number of states having trade agreements with the emirate has risen to 210, taking in to consideration the programs adopted by the UAE government to liberate the economy and setting new free zones, in and offshore, which had remarkable positive effects on the emirate’s reputation internationally.
As per imports, China, India and Japan continued to occupy the first three ranks as the UAE’s biggest trade-partners in 2004. China topped the list with 18.325 billion, India followed with 17.644 billion and Japan with 10.511 billion. The following ranks were taken successively by the USA at 9.455 billion, Germany at 8.938 billion, UK 8.703 billion, France 6.480 billion, Switzerland 6.434 billion, Italy 5.786 billion and South Korea with 5.437 billion.
On the other hand, the three major export-partners of 2003 have changed positions to favor other countries in 2004. India came first in 2004 with 2.108 billion instead of the USA, which became second with 506.836 million, while Iran replaced India to be third in the list with 497.177 million. The rest of the countries in the major-ten export partners list were successively Taiwan 333.989 million, Iraq 322.342 million, Yemen 314.903 million, Japan 314.259 million, Pakistan 308.805 million, KSA 305.020 million and Indonesia 263.966 million.
Iran’s retreat to the second place in the ten major re-exporters list was a real shock after being the biggest re-exporter for more than 10 years. India became first with 11.622 billion followed by Iran with 10.348 billion and Iraq came third with 4.168 billion in spite of the military and political situation the country is going through. It also is expected that trade between Dubai and Iraq will rise to a record level should the country’s situation settle down in future. The remaining countries in the major ten re-exporters list were successively Switzerland 2.559 at billion, Pakistan at 2.067 billion, Algeria 1.404 billion, Belgium 1.373 billion, Hong Kong 1.254 billion, Libya 1.207 billion and KSA 968.534 million.
A quick overlook at the five major commodities that were imported in 2004 would show that Dubai spent around 33.650 million for electronics (around 23 per cent of total imports), 33.352 for jewellery (22 per cent), 16.462 billion for vehicles, plans and conveyances (11 per cent), 12.271 billion for raw metals and its accessories (8 per cent) and 12.182 for textiles.
While the five major commodities exported were raw metals and its accessories 2.935 billion (30 per cent), jewellery 1.661 billion (17 per cent), ready-made foods 1.127 (12 per cent), cement, ceramics and glassware 625.926 million (6 per cent) and textiles 624.811 (6 per cent).
Rare stones and jewellery topped the list of the five major re-exported commodities with 18.042 billion (32 per cent) followed by electronics 13.318 billion (23 per cent), textiles 5.840 billion (10 per cent) vehicles, plans and conveyances 4.945 billion (9 per cent) and raw metals and its accessories 2.238 billion (4 per cent).
