Euro shows no follow through from Wednesday’s bullish close. Dollar/Yen puts in bearish outside day. Cable trades lower but puts in higher high and higher low. Dollar/Swiss still confined to choppy range trade. Dollar/Cad well supported ahead of 1.2700. Australian Dollar well offered in the 0.6500 area. New Zealand Dollar rolls over to trade back below 0.5000.
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – The complete lack of follow through from Wednesday’s bullish close has once again put the pressure back on the downside and reaffirms the strength of the bearish trend. Any rallies are seen well capped by the 20-Day SMA (1.2745) which has acted as a formidable ceiling on a close basis for the entire 2009. Look for a near-term break back below 1.2455 (4Mar low) which should accelerate declines towards the key trend lows at 1.2330 (28Oct lows). Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. |
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USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – Gains have once again stalled out ahead of the 100.00 barriers and 200-Day SMA at 100.10 on Thursday with the market reversing course and putting in a bearish outside day. With the daily RSI just now starting to show sings of rolling back over, we like the idea of looking to sell into Friday in anticipation of a much needed and healthy short-term pullback potentially back to as far as the former neckline resistance now turned support at 94.60 (6Jan high). Only back above 99.70 negates. Strategy: SELL@ 98.00 FOR A 94.60 OBJECTIVE, STOP 99.80. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break below 97.00. |
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GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – The bullish outside day from Wednesday has shown limited follow through thus far with the market tracking lower on the day despite a daily higher high and higher low. Prospects for a shorter-term corrective rally are now fading with a break back above 1.4235 (Thursday high) now required to reintroduce any constructive potential. The overall structure is however grossly bearish with the market trading in a very well defined bear channel and poised for additional declines back below the 1.3500 2009 and multi-year lows. Key levels to watch over the coming session come in by 1.4235 and 1.3960. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
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USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – Remains locked in a choppy multi-day sideways consolidation with price action largely confined to the 1.1465-1.1890 area. The overall structure however remains bullish and we expect dips to continue to be well supported ahead of an eventual break to challenge the key 2008 highs at 1.2300. Back above 1.1890 should accelerate gains and open fresh upside, while only below 1.1465 delays. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
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