Euro reaches key inflection point. Dollar/Yen gains seen limited above 100.00. Cable confined to range despite recent surge. Dollar/Swiss still focused on 200-Day SMA. Dollar/Cad dips below 1.1800 viewed as compelling buy opportunity. Australian Dollar to fresh 2009 highs but stalling. New Zealand Dollar attempting to carve h&s top.
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – The break above falling channel support off of the 1.3740 highs is concerning for bears but the market has failed to show any good follow through thus far. After breaking out on Wednesday, gains extended to 1.3390 Thursday before pulling back into the 1.3200’s. This could now set up the potential for a false upside break and once again put pressure on the downside. However, we recommend taking to the sidelines at current levels, with a break back above 1.3390 or below 1.3195 required for clearer directional bias. Above 1.3390 exposes 1.3585-1.3740 while below 1.3195 opens a move back to 1.3000. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.3515 | R3 | 4/2 high | | 1.3390 | R2 | 4/30 high | | 1.3340 | R1 | 4/29 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.3195 | S1 | 4/30 low | | 1.3120 | S2 | 4/29 low | | 1.3000 | S3 | 4/27 low |
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USD/JPY
| USD/JPY – Continues its impressive rally from the Ichimoku cloud top and is in the process of retracing the latest 101.45-95.60 move. The market has broken back above the 61.8% retrace and now eyes a break back above 100.00. Key levels to watch over the coming sessions come in by 100.00 and 98.50 respectively. A break above 100.00 will open a move back to the 101.45, 2009 highs, while back under 98.50 sets ups a bearish reversal targeting 95.60. Strategy: SELL @100.20 FOR A 97.15 OBJECTIVE, STOP @101.65. Stops to be trailed to cost on a break back below 99.80. If trade triggers and 99.80 not broken, position to be closed out at NY close (4pm NY time) on Friday. Recommendation to be removed if not triggered by NY close on Friday. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 100.45 | R3 | 4/14 high | | 100.00 | R2 | Psychological | | 99.75 | R1 | 4/17 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 98.50 | S1 | 5/1 low | | 97.95 | S2 | 4/29 high | | 97.15 | S3 | 4/30 low |
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GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – No reason to be taking positions at current levels with the market caught in the middle of a very choppy range. Our bias however is for an eventual resumption of the broader downtrend to be confirmed on a break back below 1.4395 which should then open a fresh downside extension exposing next key support by 1.4110 (30Mar low). Any rallies should be well capped ahead of 1.5000 with only a sustained break back above 1.5070 required to shift outlook. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.5070 | R3 | 4/16 high | | 1.5000 | R2 | Psychological | | 1.4950 | R1 | 4/30 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.4755 | S1 | 5/1 low | | 1.4705 | S2 | 4/30 low | | 1.4610 | S3 | 4/29 low |
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USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – The 200-Day SMA is the key here with the market remaining quite constructive while the pair holds above the longer-term moving average on a close basis. Recent attempts below the moving average have failed and we are once again bouncing to suggest fresh upside. Look for a break back above 1.1445 to take pressure off of the downside and accelerate gains towards 1.1600. A close below the 200-Day SMA at 1.1370 will be bearish and open a direct test of the 1.1165 19Mar lows. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.1600 | R3 | 4/22 low | | 1.1530 | R2 | 4/24 high | | 1.1455 | R1 | 4/17 low | | Level | Support | |
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