Euro Rally In Early Stages
Japanese Yen Head and Shoulders
British Pound Breaking Above Corrective Channel
Swiss Franc Reverses
Canadian Dollar Possible Bottom
Australian Dollar Continues To Range
New Zealand Dollar Weakens
EUR/USD The EURUSD has held above the 38.2% fibo of 1.2456-1.2938 at 1.2754. The impulsive rally from this mornings low at 1.2750 reinforces our bullish bias. Immediate support is at the 38.2% of 1.2750-1.2837 at 1.2804. Price above 1.2750 keeps the bullish argument intact. Weakness below 1.2750 argues would suggest that the pair is heading back to 1.2693. Resistance is at yesterdays high at 1.2851. If this is a 3rd wave rally, then price should exceed 1.2938 fairly soon.
USD/JPY USDJPY is little changed from yesterday. The head and shoulders pattern that began towards the end of June is still in play and the resisting line from 117.88 limits upside potential. The head and shoulders pattern would complete on a break below the neckline (currently at 114.25 and increasing about 7 pips per day). If weakness does play out, then the 8/17 low at 115.17 is also support. A push above 116.83 (8/22 high) encounters the 7/25 high at 117.38.
GBP/USD Cable has broken above the corrective channel that began with the 8/8 high at 1.9144. The choppy nature of the decline from 1.9144 is in 3 waves and thus corrective. Short term momentum is up as RSI is above 50 on the hourly. Immediate support is at todays low at 1.8874. A break above the resistance zone from 1.8996-1.9023 exposes 1.9144.
USD/CHF As EURUSD has consolidated within an ascending triangle, USDCHF has consolidated within a descending triangle. The pair has also formed a head and shoulders pattern that would complete on a break below the triple bottom at 1.2190. RSI has slipped below 50 on the daily which is bearish. A break below 1.2190 exposes the 78.6% fibo of 1.1919-1.2595 at 1.2064. Immediate resistance is at todays high at 1.2391.
USD/CAD As we have expected, USDCAD continues to weaken. The pair appears to be tracing out the 3rd wave of a correction from 1.1456. Where might this correction end before buying returns? The 3rd corrective wave (beginning at 1.1319) would equal the first (1.1456-1.1170) at 1.1033. This is significant because the 78.6% fibo of 1.0927-1.1456 is at 1.1040 (just 7 pips away). This fits with the notion that initial moves at turning points are often retraced a large amount before a continuation. The initial move in this case is 1.0927-1.1456. USDCAD fell to 1.1049 yesterday and the wick on the daily is long indicating strong support at 1.1049.
AUD/USD As we have focused on in recent commentary, the longer term bias is a bearish one as evidenced by the bearish divergence with oscillators on the daily at recent highs and a resisting trendline from the 3/8 high at .7988. Yesterdays rally reversed at the 78.6% fibo of .7669-.7551 at .7668 and the pair fell to the .7600 figure before recovering. With hourly RSI increasing from just above 30, the near term bias is for a return to the .7670-.7700 resistance zone.
NZD/USD We have concentrated on the possible change in trend in Kiwi in recent days. Evidence includes extreme CCI on the daily (above 100) and RSI very near extreme, the likelihood of a sustained rally is not great. In addition, Thursdays inside day at the upper Bollinger band points to a potential change in trend. NZDUSD may be in the early stages of weakness as the pair has broken below support at .6360. On the other hand, this could simply be a correction of the strength to .6439. RSI is nearing oversold and the pair is trading right at a supporting trendline (see chart below). Well need to see a break below the supporting trendline on the daily (from the .5927 low) before we have confidence in the downside. The daily trendline is at .6293 today and increases roughly 9 pips per day.
Al Bawaba
