Euro Tests 1.2800
Japanese Yen Holding Strong
British Pound Due For Correction
Swiss Franc at 5 Month Support
Canadian Dollar Weakness Extending
Australian Dollar Up For 7th Consecutive Day
New Zealand Dollar Resilient
EURUSD The EURUSD has not budged in 24 hours, confining itself to a 50 pip range. A reverse hammer on the daily at triangle resistance on 11/1 gives scope to a deeper correction of strength. The pattern on the daily since May is in the shape of a large triangle that requires one more leg down in order to be considered complete. The 10/31 low at 1.2677 remains initial support with a break lower targeting the 61.8% of 1.2483-1.2797 at 1.2603.
USDJPY The USDJPY has bounced pre announcement to just above the 117 figure this morning but support has held. On the daily, a hammer at the lower Bollinger band (just above the 200 day SMA) indicates strong support just above 116.50. Initial support is at yesterdays high at 117.36 and a rally above there could give way to the 10/31 high at 118.04. A break below 116.54 probes the next support zone at the 9/22 low at 116.07.
GBPUSD Since topping at 1.9134 on 11/1, Cable has ranged primarily between 1.9050 and 1.9100. A post announcement spike could push the pair through 1.9134 and 1.9144 exposes the 4/20/2005 high at 1.9215. The short term technical picture is ultimately bearish and it looks like a top is forming. Evidence to support this is the bearish divergence with RSI on the 240 minute chart as well as 240 minute RSI recently crossing below 70. Additionally, line parallel to the short term trendline from 1.8522 exhibits what is called a throw over with price at the recent high. This occurs when the rally has gone too far too fast and a subsequent decline could see price drop to the lower channel line.
USDCHF The support from the 5 month trendline has held so far, which limits downside risk. The actual support line is just below current price near 1.2400 (11/1 low at 1.2403). It takes a break above the 11/2 high at 1.2476 to suggest that additional strength is in the works. If the dollar firms past 1.2476, then bullish targets would be the 10/31 high at 1.2528 and the 61.8% of 1.2769-1.2403 at 1.2630. A break below the aforementioned trendline exposes the 9/25 low at 1.2288.
USDCAD The USDCAD has retraced to our initial support at 1.1286 this morning. Additional support is at a short term supporting trendline near 1.1250. The pattern on the daily since May is a triangle. Price most recently bounced from the lower end of the triangle on 10/30 at 1.1177. As such, the upside is favored for a test of the upper end of the triangle near 1.1400 unless a break below 1.1177 occurs.
AUDUSD The AUDUSD rise has been steep and a corrective move lower is favored by price declining from the upper end of the short term channel (see below). The lower end if the channel is support at .7690 and a break below suggests a deeper decline towards the 38.2% of .7413-.7766 at .7631. Keep in mind also that COT data is extreme with speculators holding the largest amount of Aussie longs ever. These extreme readings often mark turning points. For more on the COT positioning, see http://www.dailyfx.com/story/charting_center/futures_positioning_cot_report/Aussie_Longs_at_Record_High_1162219751974.html
NZDUSD Kiwi is unchanged since yesterday as the pair remains above former resistance (now support ) from the 9/26 high at .6721. However, an aggressive bullish stance seems rather dangerous at the current juncture due to recently overbought short term oscillators and divergent daily oscillators. A drop below .6692 would begin to suggest that the pair was turning lower if even for just a correction. The next bullish target would be the 2/10 high at .6835.
