· Euro making a higher double bottom?<?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
· Japanese Yen threatens to break 116.00
· British Pound needs to hold 200 SMA on hourly
· Swiss Franc at a cross roads
· <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />Canadian DollarRange Galore
· Australian Dollar like catching knives
· New Zealand Dollar the pressure builds
EUR/USD The EUR/USD broke through the 1.2600 figure in early Asia trade today the breakdown ended at 1.2570 well above the prior swing low of 1.2530 setting up a bullish higher double bottom formation. The pair continues to grind it out in range between 1.2530-1.2690 zone with volatility compressing sharply over the past week. A break above the `1.2700 level targets recent double top swing highs near 1.2970, a break below the key 1.2500 figure however would be ominous to long term euro bulls invalidating the recent uptrend in the pair. <?xml:namespace prefix = o ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:office" />
USD/JPY USD/JPY finds itself at a tipping point. With the countertrend up move now extending beyond the 61.8% fibo of the 119.42-109.00 bear wave from 2/03/06-5/17/06 the retrace threatens to turn into a full fledged rally especially if the key 116.00 figure is conquered by dollar bulls. A break though those lines opens up a clear path to 119.40 for a possible test of a double top. On the other hand yen longs can take some solace in the failure of momentum confirmed by divergence in CCI which recently set a lower high on the dailies.
GBP/USD Of all the anti-dollar majors, cable shows the most constructive technical structure having broken above its 200 SMA on the hourlies last week. As we go to print the pair hovers near the average with 1.8400 figure becoming a critical pivot point. A move below the long term SMA through the 1.8400 targets last weeks low at 1.8355 and invalidates the break to the upside which commenced 6/16/06. MACD remains negative but the histogram has produced higher lows suggestive of a turn upward in price.
USD/CHF The price action of USD/CHF should bring a smile to the faces of greenback bulls, as the pair stays comfortably above its 200 SMA on the hourly. Furthermore new swing high set on the MACD suggests a momentum burst higher with 1.2413 now representing final resistance before an assault on the key 1.2500 level. Thus todays price levels remain critical to near term direction. A failure by dollar longs would set in motion a double top that could target recent lows near the 1.2000 level. Break to the upside, however, shows clear sailing to 1.2600-1.2800 zone.
USD/CAD USD/CAD chart shows one of the cleanest range environments amongst all of the pairs we cover. The 1.1300-1.0900 zone has been tested 3 times on the top and 3 times on the bottom The most recent price action points to a bias for the big dollar, especially after Fridays 138 point up candle. However, only a material break above the 1.1350 barrier would conclusively signal an upside breakout and for now odds still favor another test of range.
AUD/USD AUD/USD continues to look quite ugly for any Aussie longs contemplating a probative buy at these levels and serves as prime example of the pain of catching falling knives. The 1.7450 barrier now stands a fierce resistance with both Fridays and todays candles testament to the rejection of those levels. 1.7308 represents the last line of defense for Aussie bulls and price action would likely have to show several days of positive closes to substantiate a near term bottom.
NZD/USD Like a coiled spring continually increasing pressure, NZD/USD trades in ever more compressed ranges as it forms a clear descending triangle. The usually bearish formation hints at a break to the downside, but should prices hold the .6150 level they will have formed a formidable double bottom which could provide fuel for a another run to the .6400 figure.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />AverageTrueRange (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
