Japanese Yen Back Above 116.00
British Pound Holding Above 1.8500
Swiss Franc Weaker
Canadian Dollar Breaks Above 1.1400
Australian Dollar Hovers Around .7500
New Zealand Dollar Continues To Sit At Trendline Support
EUR/USD EUR/USD turned back at the 61.8% fibo of 1.2859-1.2456 at 1.2705, having fallen nearly one whole cent from that point. The structure of the decline from todays 1.2712 high is in 3 waves and thus is corrective in nature (so far). Price is currently testing the 38.2% fibo of 1.2456-1.2712 at 1.2615. Weakness could persist until 1.2585, which is where the confluence of where the 1st (1.2712-1.2639) and 3rd (1.2658-current) waves of the correction from 1.2712 would be equal / 50% fibo of 1.2456-1.2615 / 7/20 low at 1.2585. RSI on the hourly is nearing oversold territory as well.
USD/JPY USD/JPY completed its own 3 wave correction lower to 115.81 on Friday before turning higher. Price is supported by the confluence of the 10 and 200 day SMAs at 116.25 (also the 61.8% fibo of 115.81-116.84). Price above the 116.25 level keeps the near term picture bullish. A break lower could challenge a supporting trendline on the daily at 114.58 (trendline increases about 8 pips per day). Resistance is at the confluence of Fridays high / 61.8% of 117.88-115.81 at 117.08/11.
GBP/USD Cable weakness has unfolded in 3 waves from Fridays 1.8597 high. As a result, the upside is again favored. However, a break below todays low at 1.8479 suggests that a deeper correction of the rally from 1.8176 to 1.8597 is underway. A break above the 1.8597 high exposes the 61.8% fibo of 1.9025-1.8090 at 1.8666. With GBP/USD gaining each of the last 4 days, daily CCI is a bit overextended ( andgt; 100). However, Cables moves are often of the extended variety.
USD/CHF USD/CHF has retraced nearly the past two days declines, coming within 3 pips of last Thursdays high at 1.2488. Still, the rally is in only 3 waves, which gives scope to a continuation of dollar weakness going forward. RSI on the hourly is overbought as well. The confluence of todays low / 20 day SMA at 1.2348 is support but a break lower could eventually test a supporting trendline on the daily at 1.2265. Additional strength probes the 61.8% fibo of 1.2595-1.2349 at the psychological 1.2500 figure.
USD/CAD We mentioned Friday that USD/CAD is rapidly approaching the confluence of the 38.2% fibo of 1.1039-1.1406 / 7/14 low at 1.1255/66. If support holds, then look for a resumption of strength from the break above the ascending triangle on the daily. The low on Friday was at 1.1261 and the pair currently trades just north of the 1.1400 figure. The nature of the bounce from 1.1261 reinforces the bullish bias over the longer term. Some weakness may be due in the near term as hourly RSI is declining from overbought territory. Initial support is at the confluence of todays low / 38.2% fibo of 1.1261-1.1423 at 1.1361/66.
AUD/USD AUD/USD continues to hover around the .7500 figure just below the 50% fibo of .7791-.7270 at .7530. The impulsive move off of the .7403 low on 7/19 does lend a slightly bullish bias. Daily oscillators are slightly bullish as RSI andgt; 50 and CCI andgt; 0. A dip encounters support at the 38.2% fibo of .7403-.7543 at .7490. Fridays .7543 high is initial resistance.
NZD/USD As mentioned yesterday, Kiwi holds above a supporting trendline from the .5927 low. Current price is more or less right at that line, which needs to hold in order to keep the near term bias bullish. As such, risk to the downside is limited at current price. A break below the line could see support from Thursdays low at .6164. A break above the 61.8% fibo of .6443-.5927 at .6245 would bolster bullish prospects. RSI on the hourly is just rising from below 30 suggesting that there is plenty of room left to move higher.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; bearish
andgt; 100 extremely bullish
-100 andgt; - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
andgt; 50 bullish
50 andgt; bearish
andgt; 70 overbought
30 andgt; - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
andgt; 0 bullish
0 andgt; - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* andgt; ATR(14) andgt; 25th percentile*
High - andgt; 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* andgt;
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
andgt; 30 strong
30 andgt; - weak
*measured against past 3 months
