Japanese Yen Rejected at 115.00
British Pound In Short Term Triangle
Swiss Franc Stuck Slowly Looking Bid
Canadian Dollar Retraces
Australian Dollar Potential Reversal
New Zealand Dollar Could Tumble
EUR/USD From yesterday The next big move is likely down in a C wave decline to correct strength to 1.2859 with support at the 61.8% fibo of 1.2481-1.2859 at 1.2626 and the 78.6% fibo at 1.2562. The downside looks limited after the bounce off of support at 1.2675 but possibility remains for a test of the 61.8% fibo of 1.2481-1.2859 at 1.2625. This is also where the decline from 1.2859 to 1.2705 would equal the decline from 1.2779 (a = c) is very close to the 6/27 high at 1.2618. the other hand, if 1.2675 holds as support, then price probes the confluence of a trendline / 38.2% fibo of 1.2859-1.2675 at 1.2745 with a push higher exposing the 7/12 high at 1.2779.
USD/JPY After rallying to 115.71 yesterday, USD/JPY retraced to test the 115.00 figure. The pair has bounced from there and looks poised to challenge the 15.71 high from yesterday - judging from the long wicks on the hourly candles at the 115.00 figure earlier this morning. A break above there would probe the 78.6% fibo of 116.67-113.42 at 115.97. Looming just a bit higher is the 200 day SMA at 116.16, which bears are clinging onto. Right at the 200 day SMA is a potential resisting trendline on the daily. A rejection there could very well see a sharp decline back to the confluence of the 7/10 low / 38.2% fibo of 108.96-116.67 at 113.42/72.
GBP/USD Cable has fallen and sits near the 1.8400 figure at present. The recent consolidation looks so far to be taking place in the shape of a triangle. The upper end of the triangle would be resistance near 1.8440 and the lower end support near 1.8300. With the most recent impulsive move up from 1.8090 we would favor a break higher rather than lower to eventually challenge the confluence of the 7/7 high / 50% fibo of 1.9024-1.8090 at 1.8539/57. However, with just 2 waves completed within the triangle, scope remains for a continued contraction of volatility and thus more choppy range trading.
USD/CHF USD/CHF has just bounced off of a short term supporting trendline at 1.2280 and is heading towards the 20 day SMA at 1.2337. The pair has been trapped below the 20 day SMA since 6/30 and a break above could propel price to the 61.8% fibo of 1.2525-1.2190 at 1.2397 (also 6/27 low), which is a potential reversal point. That is the favored view but a break below the mentioned trendline before a test of the psychological 1.2400 figure would suggest that a correction of weakness to 1.2090 is over.
USD/CAD The pair remains above the former breakout point of 1.1283. USD/CAD has retraced the strength to 1.1399 and thus returned health to the bullish outlook. There is still possibility of a further retracement to the 38.2% fibo of 1.1040-1.1399 at 1.1262. However, the strength of the former resistance (now support) at that level makes a test any lower than 1.1260 unlikely
AUD/USD Aussie has again challenged the previous days high but failed earlier today at .7565. The massive bearish divergence on the hourly suggests that AUD/USD may be in for a freefall. There is a supporting trendline at current price but a break lower opens up the door for an assault on the 7/10 and 7/11 lows at .7459. Any strength contends with resistance at the .7565 high from this morning. Additionally, this is a high probability reversal point as the pair has stalled at the upper Bollinger band on the daily and yesterdays candle was a reverse hammer (todays could be as well).
NZD/USD Kiwi looks very similar to AUD/USD on the hourly. Both have challenged yesterdays high and both have failed. Both pairs also have bearish divergence with hourly oscillators, suggesting that upside potential is limited. Kiwi also sits right at a short term supporting trendline, of which a break below would facilitate a decline towards the former breakout point at the 6/30 high of .6120. Additionally, todays high at .6193 needs to cap any strength in order for the immediate bearish outlook to remain.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
