Identifying a trend and getting ahead of it is the mantra by which Jack Perkowski lives his life. His foray into the ‘Dragon’ as he calls the Chinese Republic began in the early 1990’s when he created ASIMCO Technologies Limited in Beijing, now the leading supplier of components to the diesel engine market in China. With sales of over US$500 million, Perkowski knows how to identify a trend, and knows how to exploit it.
In an exclusive interview, Perkowski predicted a recovery in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries in 2010 driven by economic diversification and oil prices. “Lacking financial leverage, the more developed countries of the European Union and the United States will recover, but at a slower pace,” he said. “Petro-dollars and the GCC’s ability to attract foreign direct investment will pull the region out of the slump by mid 2010.”
A major factor in the increasing price of oil is demand coming back out of China. “China saw the financial system failing in 2007 when its own economy was growing at 13 percent. Shanghai’s market had tripled in value and the real estate sector was at bubble level, so the Chinese government proactively capped lending and in 2008, leverage was a very hard commodity to come by.”
“Armed with a US$58 billion stimulus plan and massive investment in infrastructure project, since the first quarter of this year to date, the Chinese economy is back on its way to 8 percent growth this year,” continued Perkowski.
It is this up-take in demand, which will, over the next 6 months, provide more liquidity in the region, and bring both government and investment spending to growth levels. “Where they spend their money is key,” commented Perkowski. “If GCC governments choose to invest in the future, namely in human resources and new economy businesses, well then the future seems very bright. If not, and they decide to look for short term gain, as was the case in the past, then they are prone to fall into the same leverage trap over again.”
Jack Perkowski’s is one the main speakers at ‘Leaders in Dubai’ this year which will host global leaders in business leadership and global relations such as Archbishop Desmond Tutu, Al Gore, Gary Hamel and others.
