US Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey (MAY)
Actual: 57.2
Expected: 60.0
Previous: 62.8 (R+)
The pessimism reflected in the Conference Board's consumer sentiment survey is catching up quickly to its more extreme University of Michigan counterpart as gasoline prices hit record highs on a daily basis, food prices hover near all-time highs and the economic outlook grows bleak. The May reading for the confidence gauge slipped far more than the 2.8 points expected to 57.2 - the worst reading for the series since October of 1992. Looking at the statistics within the report, there was no silver lining to the disappointing data. Readings of both present conditions and forecasts for the coming six months deteriorated. The measure of confidence for current conditions dropped for the fourth consecutive month to a multi-year low 74.4 while the outlook slipped to a 45.7 reading. Looking more closely at the data, concerns about present conditions are seen in both employment and business conditions. In fact, the percentage of those Americans reporting jobs are 'Hard To Get' minus those that say they are 'Plentiful' edged to to -11.7 percent - the fourth negative reading and the worst overall number in years. This data aside, the figures in the outlook component are more concerning. The outlook for the job market edged lower, income expectations tumbled and plans to make major purchases (of autos and homes) cooled. This is a discouraging round of data for the US economy and its currency which is staring down a possible contraction in growth that could thwart the FOMC's optimistic projections for the second half of the year as personal consumption is one of the few things keeping the economy from contracting and potentially slumping into a recession in the months ahead.
Al Bawaba
