1. EURAUD
2. EURCAD
3. EURNZD
EURAUD EUR/AUD has tumbled the past 3 days from 1.7352 to below 1.7000 for the first time since 5/31. Price is currently testing support at the 50% fibo of 1.6364-1.7351 at 1.6859. Even with the drastic fall, prospects are still bearish. In fact, daily CCI is just now crossing below 0 and RSI below 50. Continued weakness probes support from the 5/26 low at 1.6764 and the 61.8% fibo of 1.6364-1.7351 / 4/20 high at 1.6730/42. Hourly oscillators are extremely oversold and favor a bounce or some consolidation of the decline. It does look like a 5th wave down began at 1.6989 and thus projections for a short term bottom are 1.6866 (where 5 = 1 (1.7352-1.7230), 1.6819 (1.6989 (1.382 * (1.7352-1.7230)) and 1.6789 (1.6989 (1.618 * (1.7352-1.7230)).
EURCAD The Loonie has clobbered the euro this week to the tune of 250 pips. Current price is at the 50% fibo of 1.3493-1.4454 at 1.3974. Price action is significant today as the pair broke below a consolidating triangle that was a consolidating 4th wave of a larger downtrend. As such, projections for a 5th wave bottom are 1.3576 (where wave 5 = wave 1 (1.6702-1.5829)), 1.3242 (1.4457 1.382 * (1.6702-1.5829)) and 1.3035 (1.4457 - 1.618 + (1.6072-1.5829)). The break of the triangle favors a bearish bias. Bounces encounter resistance at the 5/29 low of 1.4047 and the 6/8 low of 1.4149. Favoring a bearish bias is the break today of the 200 day SMA.
EURNZD From last Friday It looks though like a 5 wave bullish sequence ended at 2.0834 on 5/15 and that we are now in corrective mode, thus presenting us with a bearish bias. This view is still relevant and support is at the 5/25 low of 1.1986. If we are indeed in the C wave of the correction, then a violent decline is possible, possibly to the 138.2% and 161.8% fibos of 2.0810 to 1.9896 at 1.9301 and 1.9085. Further, the 38.2% fibo of 1.6320-2.0831 comes in at 1.9111, which makes the 161.8% extension at 1.9085 all the more attractive as a longer term projection. Like the other pairs, a bounce in the immediate future is a possibility as RSI is in oversold territory on the hourly.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 dayAverageTrueRange (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
