• Euro smashes through 200-Day SMA; exposes key 1.3740 highs
• Dollar/Yen very choppy; structure looks toppish
• Cable looking to extend gains back to 1.5375 2009 highs
• Dollar/Swiss takes out March trend lows by 1.1165
• Dollar/Cad drops to fresh 2009 lows by 1.1500; long triggered @1.1540
• Australian Dollar posts another 2009 high; short triggered @0.7645
• New Zealand Dollar also surges to fresh 2009 highs above 0.6035
EUR/USD
| EUR/USD – Has now retraced just over 78.6% of the major 1.3740-1.2885 move with the market likely to test next key topside resistance by 1.3585 over the coming hours. A break above 1.3585 should then accelerate gains and open a full retracement back to 1.3740. Key short-term support comes in at 1.3340 with dips expected to be well supported ahead of this level. Only back under 1.3340 will delay. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.3740 | R3 | 4/24 high | | 1.3700 | R2 | Figure | | 1.3650 | R1 | Mid-Figure | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.3475 | S1 | 5/7 high | | 1.3400 | S2 | Figure | | 1.3340 | S3 | 5/8 low |
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USD/JPY
USD/JPY – Daily studies are mixed and the market continues to chop around with no clear directional bias. Key levels to watch above and below now come in by 99.75 and 97.95 respectively, but we do not recommend taking any positions until a clearer opportunity presents. Our strategy will be to wait for studies to either show overbought or oversold before looking to enter the market. A closer look at the daily chart does seem to favor a bearish bias. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.
| | Level | Resistance | Details | | 101.45 | R3 | 4/6 2009 High | | 100.00 | R2 | Psychological | | 99.75 | R1 | 5/7 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 98.25 | S1 | 5/7 low | | 97.95 | S2 | 5/6 low | | 97.15 | S3 | 4/30 low |
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GBP/USD
| GBP/USD – The market has shown zero follow through from Thursday’s bearish outside day and although still confined to inside day price action, shows the potential for a break above the recent 1.5200 highs. Back above 1.5200 will expose a direct test of the 1.5375 2009 highs, while inability to do so, could warn of a short-term top by 1.5200. Key levels to watch above and below come in by 1.5200 and 1.4945. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.5375 | R3 | 1/8 2009 High | | 1.5300 | R2 | Figure | | 1.5200 | R1 | 5/7 high | | Level | Support | Details | | 1.4980 | S1 | 5/5 low | | 1.4755 | S2 | 5/1 low | | 1.4705 | S3 | 4/30 low |
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USD/CHF
| USD/CHF – We are starting to get a little concerned with the market breaking down through critical trend support at 1.1165 on Friday to potentially open a move back to psychological barriers at 1.1000. Below 1.1000 opens a deeper drop to challenge 1.0865 which guards against the 2009 lows at 1.0610 from early January. Back above 1.1340 is required to take the pressure off of the downside. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL. | | Level | Resistance | Details | | 1.1425 | R3 | 5/7 high | | 1.1340 | R2 | 5/8 high | | 1.1245 | R1 | 5/5 low | | Level | Support |
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