Canadian Dollar Reversal Trade

The decline from 1.0378 is clearly a 5 wave decline, which indicates additonal bearish potential.  We had originally thought that an a-b-c corrective advance was complete at 1.0128.  As it turned out though, that rally was wave W in a larger complex correction.  Wave X and Y complete the correction.  Wave Y would equal wave W at 1.0211.  Be sure to visit the Elliott Wave forum for trading ideas and updates to this pattern.

It is possible that a top is in at 1.0197, but not a certainty (there are no certainties in trading).  This is why risk should be kept above 1.0378.  Even if the USDCAD does exceed 1.0197, the strength is likely to prove marginal and temporary.