The pressure is on. After two days of solid rally, USDCAD is testing what has already been confirmed as a triple top at 1.30. The long-term and short-term patterns are both supportive of an eventual bullish break. since October, we have seen an ascending wedge formation develop below 1.30; but the rising trend is gentle and therefore the pressure is modest at best. More pressing has been the rising trend channel that has taken shape through January/February; but the ceiling on this formation was driven through on yesterday's rally. What's more, not even the consistent momentum of Friday and Monday's rally can be relied upon thanks to today's deep intraday pull back. A break will have to happen over the next 24 hours (a confirmed higher time frame close) or else the presence of significant event risk in US NFPs will temper follow through. Should the Dollar Index's push above 89 develop momentum, this could be the deciding factor.
