• Japanese Yen Trendline
• British Pound Still to See Lower Prices
• Swiss Franc Reversal
• Canadian Dollar Small 3rd Wave
• Australian Dollar Support at 200 day SMA
• New Zealand Dollar Unclear Near Term
SEE A DECRIPTION AT THE BOTTOM OF THIS REPORT FOR THE INDICATORS IN THE TABLE
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Commentary: We wrote last week that “a potential terminus for the decline is where wave C = wave A at 1.4309. “ The low last week was at 1.4310 and the EURUSD has rallied through 1.4600 already this week. This is the beginning of a 5th wave rally that will exceed 1.5000 and likely test the mid 1.5000’s over the course of the next several months.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.4309, target TBD
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Commentary: We wrote last week that the “USDJPY should rally from here into the 61.8% of 117.93-107.20 at 113.83 with 112.73 remaining intact. A support line drawn off of the 11/26 and 12/11 lows reinforces the bullish bias.” The USDJPY hit 114.65 today and has reversed lower in what could be the start of the next bearish leg in a 5 wave bear sequence that began at 117.93. A resistance line drawn off of the June and October highs supports a bearish bias.
Strategy: Bearish, against 117.93, target TBD
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Commentary: We wrote last week that “if an impulsive decline is unfolding from 2.1160, then the decline should accelerate in the next few days in a third of a third wave down and that the next objective is 1.9525.” Wave iii of either C or 3 ended at 1.9755. A bounce in wave iv is underway now and should face resistance in the 2.0050/2.0100 area (near the 38.2% of iii). Look for a top and reversal near there.
Strategy: Flat
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Commentary: We have been expecting a reversal at the 100% extension of 1.0886-1.1327-1.1153 at 1.1594. This level was former support as well; and could now be resistance. The high last week was at 1.159. We wrote last week that “aggressive bears can consider getting bearish against 1.1594.” A bearish bias is warranted against 1.1594.
Strategy: Bearish against 1.1594, target below 1.0886
Commentary: We wrote last week that “the USDCAD is setting up for a big decline.” Near term, the decline is in a 3rd wave lower. Once 5 waves down are complete, we will look to get bearish on the corrective advance that is expected to occur. Bigger picture, the decline is likely wave B of a large A-B-C corrective advance.
Strategy: Flat
Commentary: Last week, we wrote that “it is possible that the correction is over at .8549, which is just shy of the 50% retrace level of .7673-.9400 and the 200 day SMA at .8532. A cautious bullish bias is warranted against .8549.” The AUDUSD has soared and is near .8800. Like the EURUSD, this could be the beginning of a 5th wave that carries the pair near 1.0000.
Strategy: Bullish against .8549, target above .9400
Commentary: Our favored count is that wave c of a flat is underway and price must come under .7435 before we can begin to look for a bottom. Near term, wave i of C looks complete.7507. As such, a corrective setback to the .7671/.7773 zone (38.2% -61.8% of .7937-.7507) would offer a high probability short opportunity. The alternate count has an ending diagonal unfolding from .7365 with the rally from .7507 as the beginning of wave 5 within the diagonal. This count is gaining traction so be cautious on the bear side.
Strategy: Get bearish in .7671/.7773 zone, against .7937, target below .7435
