1. GBPJPY
2. GBPCHF
3. GBPAUD
GBPJPY GBP/JPY appears to be on the brink of collapse following massive negative divergence with price at a recent double top on daily and intraday charts. Wave structure on the hourly favors the bearish view as well with the decline from 213.68 in 5 waves and the subsequent rally from 211.28 unfolding in 3 waves and appearing corrective. If this is the correct interpretation of price action then measured objectives target fibo extensions of 213.69-211.28 at 208.81 (138.2%) and 208.23 (161.8%). The 38.2% fibo of 200.55-213.68 comes in at 208.73 as well. On the other hand, additional consolidation of the decline from 213.68 could test the short term double top from the last two days highs at 212.64/66.
GBPCHF GBP/CHF is similar to GBP/JPY in that the pair sits right at a supporting trendline. In recent weeks, we have focused on the range that this pair predominantly trades within roughly 2.2900-2.2575. With the 6/20 high being rejected at 2.2878, the range theme is continuing as the pair heads to the lower portion of the range near the 6/5 low at 2.2576. Daily oscillators are also favoring shorts. CCI (daily) recently declined from above 100 and RSI is crossing its midpoint at 50. Still, bears be cautious as the decline from 2.2878 has stalled at the 50% fibo of 2.2576-2.2879 at 2.2727 as RSI on the hourly shows slight positive divergence. Immediate resistance is at todays high of 2.2786.
GBPAUD GBP/AUD has declined after making a triple top on 6/20 at 2.4997. As such, daily oscillators are declining and favor bears. The pair also trades just above a supporting trendline from the 4/27 low at 2.3671. A break of that trendline bolsters the bearish argument and exposes the 38.2% fibo of 2.3664-2.5167 at 2.4594. Still, like the other Cable pairs, the decline from the recent high at 2.4997 has been rather slow and uninspiring and if the trendline holds, then a return to the triple top is a possibility.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
