1. GBPJPY
2. GBPCHF
3. GBPAUD
GBPJPY The Pound continues to fall from the 6/19 high at 213.69 and has picked up downside momentum of late. The pair has broken below a supporting trendline that began on 4/27 at 203.78, which favors additional weakness to a support zone bound by the 6/9 low / 38.2% fibo of 203.78-213.69 between 209.61/94. GBP/JPY does currently trade at support from the 6/23 low at 210.91. With hourly oscillators at / just above oversold levels, a bounce is possible. Resistance is at a series of daily lows from 211.34 (6/26) to 211.42 (6/22 and 6/27).
GBPCHF As mentioned last week on 6/22, With the 6/20 high being rejected at 2.2878, the range theme is continuing as the pair heads to the lower portion of the range near the 6/5 low at 2.2576. The daily chart below shows the extent to which this pair has ranged for the past year. As such probability would favor a test of support from the 6/5 low (and a series of daily lows) at 2.2576. A break lower exposes the 4/5 low (and other daily lows) at 2.449. Still, only a break below the 1/9 low at 2.2452 would suggest that the year long range is over. Conversely, if support holds, then scope remains for more range trading with initial resistance at the 6/12 high at 2.2769.
GBPAUD Similar to GBP/JPY, GBP/AUD has slowly made its way below a 2 month supporting trendline. A break below the 6/23 low at 2.4802 would reinforce a bearish bias. Daily oscillators are just now turning down and crossing midpoints, suggesting that the pair could be entering the early stages of a downward move.
Glossary of Terms
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CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />AverageTrueRange (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
