1. AUDCAD
2. AUDJPY
3. AUDNZD
AUDCAD AUD/CAD continues to plummet as the pair trades along the Bollinger band on the daily. After a 5 wave decline from .9855 to .8257, the probable scenario is a corrective 3 wave sequence with the decline from .8606 as the second wave. Scope remains for more weakness to the 78.6% fibo of .8206-.8606 at .8295. A break there would expose the low from 3/29 at .8206. Potential support may be at current levels as AUD/CAD trades just above last months low of .8322. Daily oscillators are bearish and CCI < -100, indicating that the momentum is strong to the downside. Resistance is at the 5/29 low of .8351.
AUDJPY After rallying the past week, AUD/JPY was rejected yesterday at the 61.8% fibo of 87.75-83.61 at 85.68. Hourly oscillators favor additional weakness as RSI just crossed below the midpoint of 50. Daily oscillators are beginning to turn over as well. Momentum and CCI are just above their 0 lines, and a cross below 0 would reinforce a bearish outlook. Support below is from Fibonacci retracements of the recent move up from 83.53 to 85.78 at 84.92 (38.2%), 84.66 (50%) and 84.40 (61.8%).
AUDNZD AUD/NZD bounced off of the lower Bollinger band on the daily on 5/25 at 1.1788, stemming the freefall from the 5/10 high at 1.2423. The turn at the 1.2423 high has led to a massive correction of the preceding uptrend but be wary of becoming overly bearish after this large correction. Trends often precede periods of consolidation and vice versa, thus some range trading is certainly a possibility going forward with resistance at the 4/11 high of 1.2015 and support at the 5/25 low of 1.1788. In the event of a break lower, potential support is at the 61.8% fibo of 1.0428-1.2423 at 1.1663.
Glossary of Terms
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CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(21) 21 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day <?xml:namespace prefix = st1 ns = "urn:schemas-microsoft-com:office:smarttags" />AverageTrueRange (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
