The Australian dollar crosses should turn up soon. The clearest opportunity is in the AUDNZD, which is expected to rally to a new high (above 1.2765) while 1.1791 remains intact.
Looking out a bit further than we usually do for the AUDCHF, it is possible that a major top is in place at 1.0850 and that the AUDCHF is headed for a break of 75.81 while 1.0850 remains intact. We arrive at this conclusion based on the 5 wave decline from the 1997 high to the 1998 low and subsequent rally that counts as a large expanded flat. The 40 week SMA is sloping down and price is below the SMA, which is bearish. RSI is headed down hard as well, also a bearish signal. Keep in mind that this is a longer term outlook and that you’ll need to zoom in on short term charts if you wish to time this trade.
The massive reversal that has taken place in the AUDCAD is probably the beginning of wave c of C within a triangle that began in late 1996. This leg would be expected to come under 81.18 within 2 years time. Near term, expect a rally back to 93 (former 4th wave).
The massive reversal that has taken place in the AUDCAD is probably the beginning of wave c of C within a triangle that began in late 1996. This leg would be expected to come under 81.18 within 2 years time. Near term, expect a rally back to 93 (former 4th wave).
The AUDNZD should turn up from above 117.91 in order to complete a 5th wave in the 5 wave bull sequence from 111.46. The level that we have cited as support for wave 4 (1.2119) is very close to current price.
Jamie Saettele writes Forex Technicals: The Day Ahead, Monday-Thursday (published at 6 pm EST), Daily Technicals every weekday morning (9 am EST), COT analysis (published Monday mornings), and analysis of currency crosses throughout the week. He is also the author of Sentiment in the Forex Market.
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