1. AUDCAD
2. AUDJPY
3. AUDNZD
AUDCAD AUD/CAD appears to be turning after dipping below .8150 yesterday at .8142 and forming a long hammer on the daily. Favoring a reversal is positive divergence with oscillators on both the weekly and daily charts at yesterdays low. Further, the last swing low was on 3/29, which was 55 days ago (a Fibonacci number) and the last swing high was on 5/18 at .8605 tomorrow would mark the 21st (another Fibo number) since that point. This Fibonacci time series confluence favors a turning point. The alternate scenario has a break below yesterdays low at .8142 exposing the 138.2% and 161.8% fibos of .8207-.8604 at .8054 and .7963.
AUDJPY AUD/JPY continues to trade in a range bound by 85.78 and 83.46. The larger picture shows the pair trading within a large well-defined downward sloping channel that began on 12/6 at 91.32. With the pair at the upper end of its recent range (currently just above 85.00), a break higher exposes the mentioned downward sloping trendline at the 50% fibo of 91.31-82.07 at 86.68. Short term momentum is up as well with RSI on the hourly most recently bouncing off of 30 and heading up above the midpoint of 50.
AUDNZD AUD/NZD has consolidated losses from 1.2423 in a 5 wave channel and the fact that it is 5 waves suggests that the consolidation is nearing an end. The daily shows a head and shoulders reversal pattern with the left shoulder at the 4/11 high of 1.2015 and the right shoulder a bit lower at the upper end of the mentioned channel at recent daily highs of 1.1990 (5/26) and 1.1984 (6/2). The 6/7 low of 1.1765 is initial support and the point to reference for a break to the downside. Reinforcing a bearish outlook is a negative 20, 50 SMA cross on the daily yesterday. The previous cross was a positive back on 12/27/05 at 1.0782.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
