1. AUDCAD
2. AUDJPY
3. AUDNZD
AUDCAD With the rally from .8288 to .9305 stalling roughly (a little further) 161.8% of the .8119-.8684 rally, probability favors a correction in the wave 4 position (see labels on chart). If .9305 holds as resistance, then a line that is parallel to the line connecting .8684 and .9305 gives us an idea of where to expect a wave 4 bottom. The intersection of the 38.2% of .8288-.9305 at .8918 and the trendline occurs during the first full week in March. Unless .9305 is exceeded, then expect consolidation / correction for the next month and a half.
AUDJPY The level to watch is the 01/03 high at 94.97. That is where the long term rally most recently stalled and turned down from resistance drawn off of the March 2004 and December 2005 highs. A push through 94.97 gives scope to an eventual test of the May 2003 high at 100.23. However, a major top could be forming. Monthly RSI is above 70 for the first time since November 2005 1 month before the previous top at 91.32. Also, COT data indicates extreme levels of bullishness on the Aussie and close to extreme levels of bearishness for the JPY. Major turns occur at extreme points. This is a longer term topping scenario and a longer term channel suggests that the bull is very much alive. The top side of a long term channel is at 101.46 this week and increases about 6 pips per week. Support begins at 93.38.
AUDNZD The AUDNZD has ranged the past week and appears on the cusp of breaking out to the upside. We maintain that a long correction of the 1.0428-1.2424 uptrend may have ended at 1.1137, just below the 61.8% fibo of the mentioned bullish wave. We mentioned last week that the pair was rejected at a trendline drawn off of the August and November highs at 1.1388. A daily close above this level establishes a bullish bias. Bulls are vulnerable below the line. The pair is rallying above the line today. 1.1647 is a bullish target and the 1.1137 low must hold. If this is a true break, then price has no business getting near 1.1137 again.
