We maintain our stance that a multi-year top is in place at 1.0823. A series of 1st and 2nd waves has unfolded since. Under the most bearish count, price will remain below .9630 and accelerate lower. Still, the top of wave ii at 1.0135 is the bearish line in the sand.
This is the same chart (but updated) that we have shown for months. This is the most telling chart of AUDCAD. The rally from .8119 to .9514 was in 5 waves and the decline to .8271 was clearly a 3 wave correction. Therefore, .9514 is expected to give way to a new high eventually. A measured objective is where the rally from .8271 would equal the rally from .8119 to .9514; at .9670. The form of the advance from .8271 is choppy but the bigger picture keeps us bullish. Near term, price should remain above .8783 (although we doubt that the pair comes near this level).
With 5 waves up from 1.0906 to 1.2031 and with 3 waves down from 1.2031, the AUDNZD is expected to eventually exceed 1.2031. The rally 1.1150 is viewed as a series of 1st and 2nd waves. Price needs to remain above 1.1271 (black horizontal line) for us to remain bullish near term.
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TREND ANALYSIS is based on a rolling pivot model. LONG TERM TREND is determined by the last 3 months of price data (high, low, close). SHORT TERM TREND is determined by the last 4 weeks of price data (high, low, close). R3, R2, R1, PL, PH, S1, S2, and S3 are provided to aid in identifying entries and exits. These are objective measures and our subjective analysis (STRATEGY) may differ.
SCHEDULE
Monday: EURJPY, GBPJPY, CHFJPY, CADJPY, AUDJPY, NZDJPY
Tuesday: EURGBP, EURCHF, EURCAD, EURAUD, EURNZD
Wednesday: GBPCHF, GBPCAD, GBPAUD, GBPNZD
Thursday: AUDCHF, AUDCAD, AUDNZD
