1. AUDCAD
2. AUDJPY
3. AUDNZD
AUDCAD AUDCAD continues to rally from .8367. Last weeks comment that an inside day at the lower Bollinger band (daily) (this is a setup that we have found is fairly accurate when trading turns) reinforces the idea that a low is in place at .8367 (8/25 low) continues to hold. The decline from .8579 (9/5 high) is viewed as a correction of strength from .8417. Support is at the 38.2% of .8417-.8579 at .8517 and the 8/30 high at .8494. Rising oscillators on the daily keep the bias bullish. The next bullish target is the 7/31 high at .8684.
AUDJPY AUDJPY is supported by the 10 day SMA at 89.26. The pair made a yearly high at 89.85 on Monday (9/4) but bearish divergence with MACD does not favor a continuation of strength. Additional bearish evidence is negative MACD slope (daily) and CCI declining from above 100 (daily). The rally from 87.15 (8/1) forms a rising wedge an ultimately bearish structure that is often succeeded by a violent decline.
AUDNZD We remarked on 8/30 that The decline from 1.2448 looks like the 3rd wave of a 3 wave correction that will correct the 1.0425-1.2427 rally. If that is the case, then price likely continues its descent until reaching fibo support at 1.1665. The pair bottomed a day later at 1.1602 before rallying 350 pips to test the 20 day SMA. We maintain a cautious bullish bias with the possibility that a 3 wave corrective expanding triangle has ended at 1.1602. Initial resistance is at the 8/24 high at 1.2013. A push above exposes the 61.8% fibo of 1.2446-1.1602 at 1.2124. A break below 1.1602 negates the bullish bias.
