1. AUDCAD
2. AUDJPY
3. AUDNZD
AUDCAD The Aussie managed to trade off of the 4 year lows made at .8142 on 6/13 against the Loonie before being rejected at the 10 day SMA on Tuesday at .8305. That failure along with hourly RSI back on the decline favors a test of the low at .8142 which is also the 78.6% fibo of the .7503-1.0544 April 2001-February 2004 bull wave. A push below would expose the next measured objective at the 161.8% extension of .9855-.9009 at .8039. A bounce encounters resistance at yesterdays high of .8305.
AUDJPY AUD/JPY has traded down, but in a choppy fashion, to 84.50. The price action has caused positive divergence with RSI on at support (from 6/14 low) on the hourly, giving scope to a rally in the near future. However, a break of support at todays low / 6/14 low at 84.52 targets the 61.8% fibo of 73.46-85.66 at 84.30. Daily moving averages offer a bearish bias with the pair just recently trading back below both the 10 and 20 day SMAs.
AUDNZD AUD/NZD has consolidated losses from 1.2423 a made a triple top on the hourly. The daily shows a head and shoulders reversal pattern with the left shoulder at the 4/11 high of 1.2015 and the right shoulder a bit lower at the upper end of the mentioned channel at recent daily highs of 1.1990 (5/26) and 1.1984 (6/2). The 6/7 low of 1.1765 is initial support and the point to reference for a break to the downside. Reinforcing a bearish outlook is a negative 20, 50 SMA cross on the daily yesterday. The previous cross was a positive back on 12/27/05 at 1.0782.
Glossary of Terms
CCI(20) 20 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(8) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
ADX(14) 14 day Average Directional Index (directional strength)
> 30 strong
30 > - weak
*measured against past 3 months
