1. AUDCAD
2. AUDJPY
3. AUDNZD
AUDCAD The AUDCAD is currently making a third test of the 0.8429 level on the daily time frame. While the range of todays bar has tallied 80 points in this most recent swing higher, there are a number of technical levels that could cut a run short. A falling currency channel, approaching 50, 100 and 200-day SMAs and the 61.8% of 0.8689 0.8292 at 0.8444 will make a break above 0.8465 difficult. Given the neutrality in the indicators, a move lower would likely have a difficult time rousing the momentum needed to break 0.8312.
AUDJPY After finally making the break of the 23.6% of 83.32 89.93, the AUDJPY has proceeded to rally unencumbered for two more sessions. A climb higher will meet some resistance at the 9/4 high at 89.28 while the bigger swing high at 89.92 could encourage a step up in yen bids. If the pair is held below the 9/4 high, a move lower to 87.29 would set up the neckline for a somewhat broad head-and-shoulders pattern.
AUDNZD The AUDNZD has shown some resiliency in its 1.1465 1.1223 range that happens to be braced by the 50.0% and 61.8% fibs of the 1.0436 1.2493 bull wave respectively. Recently, this band has been split in half however by a falling trend channel whose upper ray coincides with the 20-day SMA. A move below the 10/5 low at 1.1208 could reinitiate the downtrend with a possible jump in volatility given the steady decline in the ATR and momentum indicators. On the other hand, a break above yesterdays high at 1.1370 would effectively take out the falling channel and may signal a new bullish leg is forming that could take out the range high at 1.1465.
Table
CCI(22) 22 day Commodity Channel Index
> 0 bullish
0 > bearish
> 100 extremely bullish
-100 > - extremely bearish
RSI(14) 14 day Relative Strength Index
> 50 bullish
50 > bearish
> 70 overbought
30 > - oversold
MACD ? - MACD slope (MACD MACD[1])
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
Mom(22) 8 day Momentum (shorter-term direction)
> 0 bullish
0 > - bearish
ATR(14) 14 day Average True Range (volatility)
Medium 75th percentile* > ATR(14) > 25th percentile*
High - > 75th percentile*
Low 25th percentile* >
*measured against past 3 months
