Arab countries are expected to use more than 18,500 megabits per second (Mbps) in total international connectivity bandwidth by 2005, a new report from the Arab Advisors Group asserts. Saudi Arabia and Egypt alone use more than 60 percent of the total currently utilized Internet bandwidth in the region, while Saudi Arabia boasts the highest number of international voice circuits, closely followed by the UAE.
Five global players provide most of the Arab world’s international connectivity. These are two major international submarine fiber optic cables and three satellite operators. All International Long Distance (ILD) operators in the Arab world obtain part of their international bandwidth via Arabsat, since all Arab governments are participants in the Arabsat organization. In addition to Arabsat, international bandwidth is also acquired via Intelsat and Inmarsat. On the submarine fiber optic cables front, connectivity is provided by SEA-ME-WE and FLAG cables.
The Arab Advisors Group believes that competition amongst the fiber optic and satellite operators for providing international connectivity will increase as soon as newly established ILD and PSTN (public switched telephone network) operators enter the competitive landscape in WTO (World Tourism Organization) compatible countries in a few years. Full liberalization of the PSTN and ILD services will also increase the bandwidth capacities provided by the fiber optic and satellite operators and invite new operators to join the fray.
Most of the Arab countries examined in the new report, titled International Connectivity in the Arab World, obtain their international bandwidth via FLAG, which provides connectivity to 82 percent of the examined countries. SEA-ME-WE serves 73 percent, Arabsat 100 percent, Intelsat 82 percent and Inmarsat 27 percent, amongst other operators. FLAG, SEA-ME-WE, and Arabsat have the lion's share of circuits provided, as they provide the region with most of the utilized bandwidth capacities.
The report shows that the total number of international circuits—global and regional—for Egypt, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Syria, and the UAE exceeds 64,000 circuits, representing 0.40 percent of total countries’ mainlines. Saudi Arabia has the largest percentage share of circuits at 29.6 percent, while Sudan has the lowest percentage share at 3.2 percent.
“When it comes to the percentage share of International Long Distance minutes—outgoing and incoming—Saudi Arabia has the highest share at 33.9 percent, while Syria has the lowest share at 2.7 percent”, noted analyst Shahin Shahin. “By examining the ratio of international voice circuits available in each market to its share of the outgoing and incoming minutes within a regional context, we calculated the Arab Advisors Group’s International Voice Circuits Utilization (IVCU) index for all the countries in the report”, Shahin added.
The report shows that Syria has the highest IVCU Index score at 2.68 while Lebanon had the lowest at 0.44. “This means that Syrians making international phone calls are much less likely than the Lebanese to encounter busy signals. A high IVCU Index score could also mean that the circuits available are being under utilized”, noted analyst Sami Sunna’. “Clearly, a very high index score maybe just as bad as a very low one”, Sunna’ added. Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Saudi Arabia and Sudan all have IVCU index scores of less than one, while Egypt, Jordan, Syria and the UAE have IVCU index scores of more than one.
The Arab Advisors Group shows in the report that liberalization, the growth in GSM and Internet users/subscribers bases, and globalization will all act as solid drivers of growth in international bandwidth capacities in the Arab world so as to cope with the inevitable growing demand for communication by people, businesses, governments, and institutions. The Arab Advisors Group report finds that the Arab world’s demand for global and regional connectivity requirements is showing healthy growth levels even before the true effects of competition kick in after 2005.
The Arab Advisors Group estimates that the total utilized International Internet bandwidth will exceed 10,652 Mbps by 2005. This means that International Internet bandwidth expected to be in use by 2005 will amount, alone, to more than the full capacity of the current submarine cable of FLAG Telecom. Considering that cross-border voice circuits too are projected to use more than 7,918 Mbps for nine markets alone, the Arab Advisors Group believes that the Arab World will certainly require capacity upgrades by the existing operators in addition to presenting opportunities for new carriers’ carriers in the region.
Arab Advisors Group is a research, analysis and consulting company focused on the Communications and Internet markets throughout the Middle East & North Africa (MENA) region. — (menareport.com)
© 2001 Mena Report (www.menareport.com)
